Solana Up or Down — 5 minutes
Resolution: the Chainlink SOL/USD 60-second TWAP at the close against the TWAP at the open, ties going Up — the rule since Aug 7, 2026. The median Solana 5-minute window closed 7.9 bps from its price to beat; 7.5% closed within 1 bp.
What we measured
SOL's realized volatility at the open had a median of 44.9% a year — one standard deviation over 5 minutes is about 13.9 bps, against a median close-to-beat distance of 7.9 bps.
At T−60 s the favourite won 91.6% of 19,860 Solana 5-minute windows — the second-highest rate of the 4 5-minute markets (their average: 91.7%); Solana's 15-minute 95.1% and hourly 95.7%.
So the price sat on the losing side 8.4% of the time, 24.2 windows a night, and favourites at 90¢ or more still lost 267 of 14,656 (1.82%).
By price band: 50–60¢ won 56.3% of 1,233, 60–70¢ won 66.0% of 1,017, 70–80¢ won 77.1% of 1,206, 80–90¢ won 86.3% of 1,748, 90–100¢ won 98.2% of 14,656 (the 90¢+ favourite cost 98¢ on average).
Weighted across bands, outcomes beat prices by +0.7 points: underconfident pricing at T−60 s.
Brier at T−60 s: market 0.0606 (2 of 4 among 5-minute markets), Student-t model 0.0608, normal model 0.0623 — market ahead by 0.0002.
Up won 49.7% of Solana 5-minute windows; the roughest night was Aug 31, 2026, favourite beaten in 17.4% of 288, the calmest Sep 27, 2026 at 4.2%.
From mid-window to T−60 s the market's Brier score dropped from 0.1419 to 0.0606.
| favourite priced | windows | won | avg price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60¢ | 1,233 | 56.3% | 53.7¢ |
| 60–70¢ | 1,017 | 66.0% | 64.9¢ |
| 70–80¢ | 1,206 | 77.1% | 75.0¢ |
| 80–90¢ | 1,748 | 86.3% | 85.2¢ |
| 90–100¢ | 14,656 | 98.2% | 97.8¢ |
Paper results of our public rules (● = 95% CI clear of zero)
Paper results on Solana 5-minute windows: 234,683 paper trades, 13 rules plus 2 controls (random entry; favourite at T−30 s), 95% intervals as on /performance.
| rule | nights | n | win | avg price | total P&L $ | P&L/trade | 95% CI ¢/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 69 | 11777 | 42% | 33¢ | +1061.95 | +9.0¢ | [+8.2 ; +9.8] |
| LEAD3 | 69 | 16382 | 47% | 41¢ | +980.14 | +6.0¢ | [+5.3 ; +6.7] |
| EDGE8 | 69 | 16842 | 43% | 38¢ | +950.03 | +5.6¢ | [+4.9 ; +6.3] |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 69 | 10227 | 40% | 32¢ | +822.84 | +8.0¢ | [+7.2 ; +8.9] |
| COMBO | 69 | 17827 | 45% | 40¢ | +787.31 | +4.4¢ | [+3.7 ; +5.1] |
| EDGE6 | 69 | 18677 | 44% | 40¢ | +777.63 | +4.2¢ | [+3.5 ; +4.8] |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 69 | 15292 | 40% | 36¢ | +668.39 | +4.4¢ | [+3.6 ; +5.1] |
| EDGE4 | 69 | 19658 | 45% | 43¢ | +496.59 | +2.5¢ | [+1.9 ; +3.2] |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 69 | 19104 | 45% | 43¢ | +468.36 | +2.5¢ | [+1.8 ; +3.1] |
| IVRV | 69 | 14978 | 63% | 61¢ | +372.27 | +2.5¢ | [+1.7 ; +3.2] |
| EDGE4_T | 69 | 19596 | 53% | 51¢ | +370.36 | +1.9¢ | [+1.2 ; +2.6] |
| EDGE2 | 69 | 19841 | 46% | 45¢ | +221.35 | +1.1¢ | [+0.4 ; +1.8] |
| EDGE4_LATE | 69 | 12290 | 33% | 31¢ | +153.41 | +1.2¢ | [+0.6 ; +1.9] |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 69 | 4510 | 93% | 94¢ | −17.16 | −0.4¢ | [−1.0 ; +0.3] |
| CTRL_RND | 69 | 17682 | 50% | 51¢ | −226.51 | −1.3¢ | [−1.9 ; −0.7] |
13 of 13 rules clear zero here; highest paper totals: EDGE12 +1061.95 $ (11,777 trades, +9.02¢ each), LEAD3 +980.14 $ (16,382 trades, +5.98¢ each), EDGE8 +950.03 $ (16,842 trades, +5.64¢ each); CTRL_RND −1.28¢ [−1.85 ; −0.71], n = 17,682.
Last night
Oct 14, 2026: 289 Solana 5-minute windows graded, favourite beaten in 18 of 288, Brier 0.0450 (market) vs 0.0473 (model).
Full night of Oct 14, 2026 on /performance →Questions
How is the Solana Up or Down 5 minutes market resolved?
Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP over 60 seconds, close versus open; ties are Up.
What time do Solana 5-minute markets open and close?
288 a day, every 5 minutes on round UTC times.
What is the "price to beat" on Solana 5-minute markets?
The SOL/USD TWAP at the window's first second. Typical distance at the close: 7.9 bps (median).
Why does the Solana 5-minute price jump in the last minute?
The final 60 seconds feed the closing average, so each second fixes more of the result and prices run to 0¢ or 100¢; 1,667 SOL favourites still lost from T−60 s.
Where can I see live Solana 5-minute probabilities?
In the Mispria terminal, with Pro (free covers Bitcoin): model vs SOL market price, live.
Related markets
Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets — not financial advice, not a solicitation to trade. 18+.