Solana Up or Down — 15 minutes
Resolution: the Chainlink SOL/USD 60-second TWAP at the close against the TWAP at the open, ties going Up — the rule since Aug 7, 2026. The median Solana 15-minute window closed 13.4 bps from its price to beat; 4.2% closed within 1 bp.
What we measured
SOL's realized volatility at the open had a median of 45.7% a year — one standard deviation over 15 minutes is about 24.4 bps, against a median close-to-beat distance of 13.4 bps.
At T−60 s the favourite won 95.1% of 6,617 Solana 15-minute windows — the third-highest rate of the 4 15-minute markets (their average: 95.1%); Solana's 5-minute 91.6% and hourly 95.7%.
So the price sat on the losing side 4.9% of the time, 4.7 windows a night, and favourites at 90¢ or more still lost 45 of 5,605 (0.80%).
By price band: 50–60¢ won 52.6% of 249, 60–70¢ won 69.3% of 215, 70–80¢ won 77.6% of 228, 80–90¢ won 85.6% of 320, 90–100¢ won 99.2% of 5,605 (the 90¢+ favourite cost 99¢ on average).
Weighted across bands, outcomes beat prices by +0.6 points: underconfident pricing at T−60 s.
Brier at T−60 s: market 0.0349 (3 of 4 among 15-minute markets), Student-t model 0.0339, normal model 0.0348 — model ahead by 0.0011.
Up won 50.2% of Solana 15-minute windows; the roughest night was Aug 19, 2026, favourite beaten in 14.6% of 96, the calmest Sep 17, 2026 at 0.0%.
From mid-window to T−60 s the market's Brier score dropped from 0.1492 to 0.0349.
| favourite priced | windows | won | avg price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60¢ | 249 | 52.6% | 53.4¢ |
| 60–70¢ | 215 | 69.3% | 64.6¢ |
| 70–80¢ | 228 | 77.6% | 75.0¢ |
| 80–90¢ | 320 | 85.6% | 85.4¢ |
| 90–100¢ | 5,605 | 99.2% | 98.8¢ |
Paper results of our public rules (● = 95% CI clear of zero)
Paper results on Solana 15-minute windows: 78,251 paper trades, 13 rules plus 2 controls (random entry; favourite at T−30 s), 95% intervals as on /performance.
| rule | nights | n | win | avg price | total P&L $ | P&L/trade | 95% CI ¢/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE8 | 69 | 5255 | 43% | 36¢ | +349.76 | +6.7¢ | [+5.4 ; +7.9] |
| EDGE12 | 69 | 3381 | 41% | 31¢ | +333.84 | +9.9¢ | [+8.3 ; +11.4] |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 69 | 4943 | 42% | 35¢ | +322.93 | +6.5¢ | [+5.3 ; +7.8] |
| LEAD3 | 69 | 6330 | 47% | 42¢ | +322.39 | +5.1¢ | [+3.9 ; +6.2] |
| EDGE6 | 69 | 6098 | 45% | 40¢ | +311.44 | +5.1¢ | [+3.9 ; +6.3] |
| COMBO | 69 | 6300 | 46% | 41¢ | +296.02 | +4.7¢ | [+3.6 ; +5.8] |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 69 | 3011 | 39% | 30¢ | +261.46 | +8.7¢ | [+7.1 ; +10.3] |
| EDGE4 | 69 | 6536 | 47% | 43¢ | +231.87 | +3.5¢ | [+2.4 ; +4.7] |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 69 | 6286 | 47% | 43¢ | +221.35 | +3.5¢ | [+2.3 ; +4.7] |
| EDGE4_T | 69 | 6501 | 54% | 51¢ | +210.85 | +3.2¢ | [+2.1 ; +4.4] |
| IVRV | 69 | 5122 | 62% | 59¢ | +174.66 | +3.4¢ | [+2.1 ; +4.7] |
| EDGE4_LATE | 69 | 4551 | 32% | 30¢ | +70.67 | +1.6¢ | [+0.4 ; +2.7] |
| EDGE2 | 69 | 6606 | 47% | 46¢ | +70.50 | +1.1¢ | [−0.1 ; +2.3] |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 69 | 1094 | 93% | 94¢ | −14.58 | −1.3¢ | [−2.7 ; +0.1] |
| CTRL_RND | 69 | 6237 | 50% | 52¢ | −120.64 | −1.9¢ | [−2.9 ; −1.0] |
12 of 13 rules clear zero here; highest paper totals: EDGE8 +349.76 $ (5,255 trades, +6.66¢ each), EDGE12 +333.84 $ (3,381 trades, +9.87¢ each), EDGE8_BUILT +322.93 $ (4,943 trades, +6.53¢ each); CTRL_RND −1.93¢ [−2.90 ; −0.96], n = 6,237.
Last night
Oct 14, 2026: 96 Solana 15-minute windows graded, favourite beaten in 2 of 96, Brier 0.0202 (market) vs 0.0195 (model).
Full night of Oct 14, 2026 on /performance →Questions
How is the Solana Up or Down 15 minutes market resolved?
Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP over 60 seconds, close versus open; ties are Up.
What time do Solana 15-minute markets open and close?
96 a day, at :00, :15, :30 and :45 UTC.
What is the "price to beat" on Solana 15-minute markets?
The SOL/USD TWAP at the window's first second. Typical distance at the close: 13.4 bps (median).
Why does the Solana 15-minute price jump in the last minute?
The final 60 seconds feed the closing average, so each second fixes more of the result and prices run to 0¢ or 100¢; 326 SOL favourites still lost from T−60 s.
Where can I see live Solana 15-minute probabilities?
In the Mispria terminal, with Pro (free covers Bitcoin): model vs SOL market price, live.
Related markets
Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets — not financial advice, not a solicitation to trade. 18+.