XRP Up or Down — 15 minutes
Resolution: the Chainlink XRP/USD 60-second TWAP at the close against the TWAP at the open, ties going Up — the rule since Aug 7, 2026. The median XRP 15-minute window closed 14.7 bps from its price to beat; 4.1% closed within 1 bp.
What we measured
XRP's realized volatility at the open had a median of 49.4% a year — one standard deviation over 15 minutes is about 26.4 bps, against a median close-to-beat distance of 14.7 bps.
At T−60 s the favourite won 95.3% of 6,618 XRP 15-minute windows — the second-highest rate of the 4 15-minute markets (their average: 95.1%); XRP's 5-minute 91.4% and hourly 96.1%.
So the price sat on the losing side 4.7% of the time, 4.5 windows a night, and favourites at 90¢ or more still lost 42 of 5,614 (0.75%).
By price band: 50–60¢ won 55.7% of 230, 60–70¢ won 64.1% of 195, 70–80¢ won 79.5% of 220, 80–90¢ won 85.2% of 359, 90–100¢ won 99.3% of 5,614 (the 90¢+ favourite cost 99¢ on average).
Weighted across bands, outcomes beat prices by +0.7 points: underconfident pricing at T−60 s.
Brier at T−60 s: market 0.0339 (2 of 4 among 15-minute markets), Student-t model 0.0320, normal model 0.0330 — model ahead by 0.0019.
Up won 50.4% of XRP 15-minute windows; the roughest night was Aug 31, 2026, favourite beaten in 14.6% of 96, the calmest Oct 9, 2026 at 1.0%.
From mid-window to T−60 s the market's Brier score dropped from 0.1470 to 0.0339.
| favourite priced | windows | won | avg price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60¢ | 230 | 55.7% | 53.1¢ |
| 60–70¢ | 195 | 64.1% | 65.0¢ |
| 70–80¢ | 220 | 79.5% | 74.8¢ |
| 80–90¢ | 359 | 85.2% | 85.2¢ |
| 90–100¢ | 5,614 | 99.3% | 98.7¢ |
Paper results of our public rules (● = 95% CI clear of zero)
Paper results on XRP 15-minute windows: 77,493 paper trades, 13 rules plus 2 controls (random entry; favourite at T−30 s), 95% intervals as on /performance.
| rule | nights | n | win | avg price | total P&L $ | P&L/trade | 95% CI ¢/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 69 | 3276 | 43% | 32¢ | +359.78 | +11.0¢ | [+9.4 ; +12.5] |
| EDGE8 | 69 | 5147 | 42% | 35¢ | +326.81 | +6.3¢ | [+5.1 ; +7.6] |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 69 | 4827 | 40% | 34¢ | +285.50 | +5.9¢ | [+4.6 ; +7.2] |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 69 | 2889 | 40% | 31¢ | +283.60 | +9.8¢ | [+8.2 ; +11.5] |
| LEAD3 | 69 | 6269 | 45% | 41¢ | +243.31 | +3.9¢ | [+2.7 ; +5.0] |
| EDGE6 | 69 | 6074 | 43% | 39¢ | +238.59 | +3.9¢ | [+2.7 ; +5.1] |
| COMBO | 69 | 6222 | 44% | 41¢ | +225.92 | +3.6¢ | [+2.5 ; +4.8] |
| IVRV | 69 | 4963 | 63% | 60¢ | +166.96 | +3.4¢ | [+2.1 ; +4.7] |
| EDGE4_T | 69 | 6481 | 53% | 51¢ | +161.11 | +2.5¢ | [+1.3 ; +3.7] |
| EDGE4_LATE | 69 | 4508 | 32% | 31¢ | +72.92 | +1.6¢ | [+0.5 ; +2.8] |
| EDGE2 | 69 | 6610 | 46% | 45¢ | +58.54 | +0.9¢ | [−0.3 ; +2.1] |
| EDGE4 | 69 | 6538 | 43% | 42¢ | +37.18 | +0.6¢ | [−0.6 ; +1.7] |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 69 | 6251 | 43% | 42¢ | +36.16 | +0.6¢ | [−0.6 ; +1.8] |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 69 | 1135 | 93% | 94¢ | −14.88 | −1.3¢ | [−2.7 ; +0.1] |
| CTRL_RND | 69 | 6303 | 50% | 51¢ | −92.15 | −1.5¢ | [−2.4 ; −0.5] |
10 of 13 rules clear zero here; highest paper totals: EDGE12 +359.78 $ (3,276 trades, +10.98¢ each), EDGE8 +326.81 $ (5,147 trades, +6.35¢ each), EDGE8_BUILT +285.50 $ (4,827 trades, +5.91¢ each); CTRL_RND −1.46¢ [−2.42 ; −0.50], n = 6,303.
Last night
Oct 14, 2026: 96 XRP 15-minute windows graded, favourite beaten in 4 of 96, Brier 0.0229 (market) vs 0.0253 (model).
Full night of Oct 14, 2026 on /performance →Questions
How is the XRP Up or Down 15 minutes market resolved?
Chainlink XRP/USD TWAP over 60 seconds, close versus open; ties are Up.
What time do XRP 15-minute markets open and close?
96 a day, at :00, :15, :30 and :45 UTC.
What is the "price to beat" on XRP 15-minute markets?
The XRP/USD TWAP at the window's first second. Typical distance at the close: 14.7 bps (median).
Why does the XRP 15-minute price jump in the last minute?
The final 60 seconds feed the closing average, so each second fixes more of the result and prices run to 0¢ or 100¢; 312 XRP favourites still lost from T−60 s.
Where can I see live XRP 15-minute probabilities?
In the Mispria terminal, with Pro (free covers Bitcoin): model vs XRP market price, live.
Related markets
Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets — not financial advice, not a solicitation to trade. 18+.