XRP Up or Down — hourly
Resolution: the Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle, close against open, ties going Up (unchanged on Aug 7, 2026).
What we measured
XRP's realized volatility at the open had a median of 50.2% a year — one standard deviation over 1 hour is about 53.6 bps.
At T−60 s the favourite won 96.1% of 1,655 XRP hourly windows — the highest rate of the 4 hourly markets (their average: 96.0%); XRP's 5-minute 91.4% and 15-minute 95.3%.
So the price sat on the losing side 3.9% of the time, 0.9 windows a night, and favourites at 90¢ or more still lost 9 of 1,444 (0.62%).
By price band: 50–60¢ won 50.0% of 44, 60–70¢ won 70.0% of 40, 70–80¢ won 67.4% of 43, 80–90¢ won 91.7% of 84, 90–100¢ won 99.4% of 1,444 (the 90¢+ favourite cost 99¢ on average).
Weighted across bands, outcomes beat prices by +0.8 points: underconfident pricing at T−60 s.
Brier at T−60 s: market 0.0272 (sharpest among hourly markets), Student-t model 0.0241, normal model 0.0249 — model ahead by 0.0032.
Up won 51.9% of XRP hourly windows; the roughest night was Sep 23, 2026, favourite beaten in 16.7% of 24, the calmest Oct 10, 2026 at 0.0%.
From mid-window to T−60 s the market's Brier score dropped from 0.1589 to 0.0272.
| favourite priced | windows | won | avg price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60¢ | 44 | 50.0% | 53.3¢ |
| 60–70¢ | 40 | 70.0% | 65.2¢ |
| 70–80¢ | 43 | 67.4% | 74.9¢ |
| 80–90¢ | 84 | 91.7% | 85.5¢ |
| 90–100¢ | 1,444 | 99.4% | 98.7¢ |
Paper results of our public rules (● = 95% CI clear of zero)
Paper results on XRP hourly windows: 18,365 paper trades, 13 rules plus 2 controls (random entry; favourite at T−30 s), 95% intervals as on /performance.
| rule | nights | n | win | avg price | total P&L $ | P&L/trade | 95% CI ¢/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE4_T | 69 | 1578 | 56% | 52¢ | +60.80 | +3.9¢ | [+1.5 ; +6.2] |
| EDGE12 | 69 | 584 | 35% | 28¢ | +43.51 | +7.5¢ | [+3.9 ; +11.0] |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 69 | 527 | 36% | 28¢ | +43.07 | +8.2¢ | [+4.5 ; +11.8] |
| EDGE4 | 69 | 1594 | 43% | 41¢ | +34.22 | +2.1¢ | [−0.2 ; +4.5] |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 69 | 1333 | 45% | 43¢ | +33.80 | +2.5¢ | [−0.0 ; +5.1] |
| LEAD3 | 69 | 1570 | 42% | 40¢ | +31.71 | +2.0¢ | [−0.3 ; +4.3] |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 69 | 1077 | 34% | 31¢ | +30.93 | +2.9¢ | [+0.4 ; +5.4] |
| EDGE6 | 69 | 1426 | 38% | 36¢ | +30.41 | +2.1¢ | [−0.2 ; +4.5] |
| COMBO | 69 | 1536 | 41% | 39¢ | +29.73 | +1.9¢ | [−0.3 ; +4.2] |
| EDGE8 | 69 | 1130 | 34% | 32¢ | +28.40 | +2.5¢ | [+0.0 ; +5.0] |
| EDGE2 | 69 | 1642 | 47% | 45¢ | +27.11 | +1.7¢ | [−0.7 ; +4.0] |
| IVRV | 69 | 1048 | 66% | 63¢ | +27.03 | +2.6¢ | [−0.2 ; +5.4] |
| EDGE4_LATE | 69 | 1153 | 27% | 28¢ | −2.97 | −0.3¢ | [−2.5 ; +1.9] |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 69 | 571 | 95% | 97¢ | −13.20 | −2.3¢ | [−4.0 ; −0.6] |
| CTRL_RND | 69 | 1596 | 51% | 53¢ | −36.86 | −2.3¢ | [−4.3 ; −0.4] |
5 of 13 rules clear zero here; highest paper totals: EDGE4_T +60.80 $ (1,578 trades, +3.85¢ each), EDGE12 +43.51 $ (584 trades, +7.45¢ each), EDGE12_BUILT +43.07 $ (527 trades, +8.17¢ each); CTRL_RND −2.31¢ [−4.26 ; −0.36], n = 1,596.
Last night
Oct 14, 2026: 24 XRP hourly windows graded, favourite beaten in 1 of 24, Brier 0.0155 (market) vs 0.0116 (model).
Full night of Oct 14, 2026 on /performance →Questions
How is the XRP Up or Down hourly market resolved?
Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle, close versus open; ties are Up.
What time do XRP hourly markets open and close?
24 a day, on the hour (labelled in US Eastern time).
What is the "price to beat" on XRP hourly markets?
The XRP/USDT candle's open, printed at the top of the hour.
Why does the XRP hourly price jump in the last minute?
A close call turns on the candle's last trades; 64 XRP favourites lost from T−60 s.
Where can I see live XRP hourly probabilities?
In the Mispria terminal, with Pro (free covers Bitcoin): model vs XRP market price, live.
Related markets
Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets — not financial advice, not a solicitation to trade. 18+.