XRP Up or Down — 5 minutes
Resolution: the Chainlink XRP/USD 60-second TWAP at the close against the TWAP at the open, ties going Up — the rule since Aug 7, 2026. The median XRP 5-minute window closed 8.4 bps from its price to beat; 7.6% closed within 1 bp.
What we measured
XRP's realized volatility at the open had a median of 49.0% a year — one standard deviation over 5 minutes is about 15.1 bps, against a median close-to-beat distance of 8.4 bps.
At T−60 s the favourite won 91.4% of 19,859 XRP 5-minute windows — the lowest rate of the 4 5-minute markets (their average: 91.7%); XRP's 15-minute 95.3% and hourly 96.1%.
So the price sat on the losing side 8.6% of the time, 24.7 windows a night, and favourites at 90¢ or more still lost 261 of 14,537 (1.80%).
By price band: 50–60¢ won 56.9% of 1,231, 60–70¢ won 64.7% of 1,063, 70–80¢ won 77.8% of 1,251, 80–90¢ won 85.5% of 1,777, 90–100¢ won 98.2% of 14,537 (the 90¢+ favourite cost 98¢ on average).
Weighted across bands, outcomes beat prices by +0.7 points: underconfident pricing at T−60 s.
Brier at T−60 s: market 0.0619 (least sharp among 5-minute markets), Student-t model 0.0621, normal model 0.0633 — market ahead by 0.0002.
Up won 49.5% of XRP 5-minute windows; the roughest night was Aug 26, 2026, favourite beaten in 14.6% of 287, the calmest Sep 16, 2026 at 4.5%.
From mid-window to T−60 s the market's Brier score dropped from 0.1433 to 0.0619.
| favourite priced | windows | won | avg price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60¢ | 1,231 | 56.9% | 53.8¢ |
| 60–70¢ | 1,063 | 64.7% | 64.8¢ |
| 70–80¢ | 1,251 | 77.8% | 75.0¢ |
| 80–90¢ | 1,777 | 85.5% | 85.2¢ |
| 90–100¢ | 14,537 | 98.2% | 97.7¢ |
Paper results of our public rules (● = 95% CI clear of zero)
Paper results on XRP 5-minute windows: 228,144 paper trades, 13 rules plus 2 controls (random entry; favourite at T−30 s), 95% intervals as on /performance.
| rule | nights | n | win | avg price | total P&L $ | P&L/trade | 95% CI ¢/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 69 | 10884 | 42% | 33¢ | +1007.74 | +9.3¢ | [+8.4 ; +10.1] |
| LEAD3 | 69 | 15976 | 47% | 41¢ | +958.07 | +6.0¢ | [+5.3 ; +6.7] |
| EDGE8 | 69 | 16062 | 43% | 37¢ | +954.01 | +5.9¢ | [+5.2 ; +6.7] |
| COMBO | 69 | 17422 | 45% | 40¢ | +866.91 | +5.0¢ | [+4.3 ; +5.7] |
| EDGE6 | 69 | 18170 | 44% | 40¢ | +793.42 | +4.4¢ | [+3.7 ; +5.1] |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 69 | 9185 | 39% | 31¢ | +746.53 | +8.1¢ | [+7.2 ; +9.0] |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 69 | 14256 | 40% | 35¢ | +718.04 | +5.0¢ | [+4.3 ; +5.8] |
| EDGE4 | 69 | 19498 | 45% | 42¢ | +493.33 | +2.5¢ | [+1.9 ; +3.2] |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 69 | 18543 | 45% | 42¢ | +478.30 | +2.6¢ | [+1.9 ; +3.3] |
| EDGE4_T | 69 | 19410 | 54% | 52¢ | +443.84 | +2.3¢ | [+1.6 ; +3.0] |
| IVRV | 69 | 14217 | 65% | 62¢ | +359.55 | +2.5¢ | [+1.8 ; +3.3] |
| EDGE2 | 69 | 19834 | 45% | 44¢ | +173.22 | +0.9¢ | [+0.2 ; +1.5] |
| EDGE4_LATE | 69 | 11886 | 32% | 32¢ | −17.58 | −0.1¢ | [−0.8 ; +0.6] |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 69 | 5005 | 93% | 94¢ | −38.85 | −0.8¢ | [−1.4 ; −0.2] |
| CTRL_RND | 69 | 17796 | 50% | 52¢ | −237.55 | −1.3¢ | [−1.9 ; −0.8] |
12 of 13 rules clear zero here; highest paper totals: EDGE12 +1007.74 $ (10,884 trades, +9.26¢ each), LEAD3 +958.07 $ (15,976 trades, +6.00¢ each), EDGE8 +954.01 $ (16,062 trades, +5.94¢ each); CTRL_RND −1.33¢ [−1.91 ; −0.76], n = 17,796.
Last night
Oct 14, 2026: 289 XRP 5-minute windows graded, favourite beaten in 25 of 289, Brier 0.0623 (market) vs 0.0614 (model).
Full night of Oct 14, 2026 on /performance →Questions
How is the XRP Up or Down 5 minutes market resolved?
Chainlink XRP/USD TWAP over 60 seconds, close versus open; ties are Up.
What time do XRP 5-minute markets open and close?
288 a day, every 5 minutes on round UTC times.
What is the "price to beat" on XRP 5-minute markets?
The XRP/USD TWAP at the window's first second. Typical distance at the close: 8.4 bps (median).
Why does the XRP 5-minute price jump in the last minute?
The final 60 seconds feed the closing average, so each second fixes more of the result and prices run to 0¢ or 100¢; 1,702 XRP favourites still lost from T−60 s.
Where can I see live XRP 5-minute probabilities?
In the Mispria terminal, with Pro (free covers Bitcoin): model vs XRP market price, live.
Related markets
Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets — not financial advice, not a solicitation to trade. 18+.